Truck Tonnage Rises 3% in February, Signaling Recovery
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The freight market experienced a 3% sequential tonnage increase in February as well as its second straight year-over-year gain, furthering optimism it is emerging from its recession, reported March 18.
The ATA For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased to 115.2 from 111.9 in January. The index also was up 0.6% from 2024, marking the first time it has shown consecutive year-over-year increases since early 2023.
“After a scant 0.1% decline in January, which wasn’t bad considering the harsh winter weather and California wildfires, truck tonnage had a robust gain in February,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said. “This outcome fits well with our growing optimism for the truck freight market after a two-year recession.”
ATA calculates its monthly tonnage index based on feedback from contract freight. In calculating the index, 100 represents 2015. The association also noted that the not seasonally adjusted index decreased 4.7% sequentially to 104.8 in February. This calculates raw changes in tonnage haul.
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“Some of the gain in February was due to accelerated imports as shippers brought products into the U.S. before tariffs hit,” Costello said. “Even accounting for this, the first two months of the year were positive, all things considered, showing that the freight recovery has started.”
The that shipments decreased 5.5% year over year to 1.054 from 1.115. But it did also show a sequential increase of 10.5% from 0.954 in January. The report noted that normal seasonality helped the reading recoup some losses. Some of the improvement was likely from pre-tariff shipping. The Cass report also found some sequential variation that was likely caused by severe January weather.
The , compared with 62 in January. The index measures the rate of change on a scale to 100. An LMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the logistics sector, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. It’s compiled by researchers at Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Florida Atlantic University, Rutgers University, the University of Nevada-Reno and the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals.
An LMI report noted that transportation prices remain in expansion territory for the third consecutive month after 18 straight months of contraction. Transportation utilization improved by about half a point to 57 in February. Transportation capacity fell over a point to 59.6.
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“So far 2025 stands in stark contrast to the more [just-in-time] inventory patterns of 2024 when average inventory level growth was a lean 52.7,” the LMI report noted. “It is likely that this increase has been at least partially driven by continually shifting trade policies.”
The LMI report added that the spike in inventories has led to increased rates of expansion for inventory costs and warehousing prices, both of which hit their fastest rate of expansion in several years. The report noted that supply chains have strained to shoulder both the volume and velocity of inventory that poured across borders during the first two months of the year, as firms attempted to avoid costs associated with potential tariffs.
“The loosening of transportation capacity mostly happened in late February, which could suggest that inventory was built up quickly, but has become somewhat static in the last two weeks as firms and consumers have become concerned about the potential cost ramifications of a potential trade war,” the report noted.
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