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The International Energy Agency slashed forecasts for global oil demand this year amid the trade war, and in its first detailed assessment of 2026 predicted a persistent supply surplus.

Global oil demand is under pressure from the escalating trade war at the same time that OPEC+ is reviving output, threatening to deepen a supply surplus, the International Energy Agency said.

The International Energy Agency, the west’s energy watchdog, is considering reviving one of its long-term energy demand scenarios after criticism from U.S. Republican leaders.

OPEC forecast another year of steady oil demand growth, driven by India and China, in its first detailed assessment of 2026.

OPEC cut oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next for a fifth straight month, making its deepest reduction to the 2024 outlook so far after agreeing to extend its supply curbs.

OPEC+ has little scope to reverse its oil production cuts, which have triggered a wave of rival supply from the U.S. shale industry, Iran’s representative to the group said.

OPEC cut its oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next for a fourth consecutive month as it belatedly recognized a slowdown in top consumer China.

OPEC trimmed its forecasts for oil demand growth this year and next for a third consecutive month as the group belatedly recognizes a slowdown in global fuel use.

OPEC doubled down on forecasts that global oil demand will keep growing to the middle of the century, an outlier view that scientists say would lead to climate catastrophe.

OPEC+ has staved off an oil surplus this year by deciding to restrain production a little longer. But the temporary fix won’t hold back the supply glut awaiting global markets in 2025.