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WASHINGTON — U.S. long-term mortgage rates fell this week following a sharp rise the week before, making September the most volatile month for the key 30-year loan since March.

The U.S. economy grew at a modest 2% annual rate in the second quarter, a pace sharply lower than the 3%-plus growth rates seen over the past year. Many analysts believe growth will slow further in coming quarters as global weakness and rising trade tensions exert a toll.

Optimism among U.S. small-business owners fell in August to the lowest level in five months, with the outlook for the economy and sales slumping amid escalating trade tensions and recession fears.

A downward trend in trailer orders this year is accompanying the softening freight environment in 2019, but also follows a banner year when motor carriers stocked up on equipment they think they’ll need to navigate the next several years, fleet and manufacturing executives said.

Experts in the fields of manufacturing, logistics and the petroleum industry are scheduled to participate in American Trucking Associations’ economic summit in September.

The likelihood of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months rose to 35% in an August survey of economists, from 31% forecast previously, as global trade tensions fuel economic uncertainty.

The escalating trade war between the U.S. and China is nudging the world economy toward its first recession in a decade with investors demanding politicians and central bankers act fast to change course.

A gauge of service industries declined in July to an almost three-year low as orders continued to cool, indicating a sluggish start to the third quarter for the biggest part of the economy.

Orders with U.S. factories for business equipment rebounded in May with the largest increase in four months, signaling corporate investment is holding up despite tensions with major trading partners fueling uncertainty about the outlook.

One of the biggest concerns in recent decades has been the “hollowing out” of middle-wage, middle-skill jobs. Employment at the low and high ends of the income scale has risen faster, and many jobs that have traditionally supported the middle class have suffered by comparison, with ramifications that are social and political as well as economic.