Truck Tonnage Slips 1.5% in March After Strong February
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The U.S. freight market slowed in March after a robust February, but data for the first quarter of 2025 as a whole suggested a turnaround was underway, according to American Trucking Associations.
Truck freight tonnage in March decreased 1.5% after rising 2.8% in February, ATA’s seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index showed. The index came in at 113.4 for the month, down from 115.1 in February. The index, for which the year 2015 represents 100, inched up 0.2% compared with March 2024 for a third consecutive year-over-year increase — a trend not seen since late 2022 and early 2023.
“Solid manufacturing output in March, led by robust auto production, likely helped truck freight tonnage not fall more after a very strong February,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said in an April 22 news release.
ATA’s not-adjusted-seasonally index — calculated using raw changes in tonnage hauled — equaled 114.6 in March, 9.5% above February’s reading of 104.7.
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Both indexes focus on contract freight, as opposed to spot market freight. The tonnage indexes are calculated based on surveys of ATA’s members.
“Overall in the first quarter, tonnage increased marginally from both the fourth and first quarters of 2024. While the gains were not strong at half of a percent and less, it was the first time that the quarterly average increased both sequentially and from a year earlier in two years,” Costello said. “That tells me that the freight market did in fact turn around in the first three months of the year despite an uncertain outlook.”
A large portion of that uncertainty is the result of the Trump administration's back-and-forth approach to tariff policies on imports from around the globe. Baseline tariffs of 10% on all U.S. imports became effective April 5 and remain in place. While higher levies for many countries' exports were announced, the White House declared a 90-day pause on these additional tariffs April 9. But elevated tariffs on imports from China as well as steel and aluminum from all sources remain in effect.
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Notably, while some of the strength recorded in February was due to storms delaying freight in January, a portion of March’s positive results was propelled by shippers trying to get ahead of tariff-related cost increases, said ACT Research Vice President Tim Denoyer. Freight volumes in the second quarter are likely to receive a further bump from additional pre-tariff shipping, but higher prices will reduce goods’ affordability and consumers’ real incomes after that, hurting shipment levels, he noted.
The World Trade Organization on April 16 said it expects U.S. exports to drop 12.6% in 2025 due to the tariffs. Plus, the International Monetary Fund in its latest World Economic Outlook forecast said U.S. economic growth is expected to slow to 1.8% in 2025 compared with a forecast of 2.7% growth in January, a downgrade driven by greater policy uncertainty, trade tensions and softer demand momentum. Global growth is projected to drop to 2.8% in 2025 and 3% in 2026, compared with January expectations of 3.3% for both years, the multilateral financial institution said April 22.
Stateside, one of the nation’s top financial experts also expressed concern about the tariffs’ effect on the U.S. economy.
“The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth,” U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told the Economic Club of Chicago on April 16.
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